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Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":97074.8239830966,"mean_absolute_error":879542.019687384,"root_mean_squared_error":1108740.1670708878,"median_absolute_error":849854.637144614,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.014301509400922884,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.47493460970421386,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":1974767.7090909088,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5546098836646036,"overforecast_share":0.5909090909090909,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":235718.98953176645,"mean_absolute_error":1537184.915373464,"root_mean_squared_error":1911359.682281227,"median_absolute_error":1379640.1497609466,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.025002375686558335,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.8297894825419794,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3819194.9580952385,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5975107497156652,"overforecast_share":0.6190476190476191,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-203487.01820243185,"mean_absolute_error":1653938.6022253144,"root_mean_squared_error":2111064.0701764924,"median_absolute_error":1459207.650484845,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.027059945898620676,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.9071169200332725,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3819194.9580952385,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5669405148538975,"overforecast_share":0.47619047619047616,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-3819194.9580952385,"mean_absolute_error":3819194.9580952385,"root_mean_squared_error":4136934.9508036976,"median_absolute_error":3265528.7899999917,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.06364348746340709,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.0990217611631508,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3819194.9580952385,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":61518.7252246294,"mean_absolute_error":1429391.611051755,"root_mean_squared_error":1862472.2942334868,"median_absolute_error":1104736.5176420808,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.023255768462359022,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.7722140711640662,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3819194.9580952385,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6257348402647032,"overforecast_share":0.5714285714285714,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":411327.6769887415,"mean_absolute_error":1705983.277296822,"root_mean_squared_error":2045276.0382193883,"median_absolute_error":1704291.7669797242,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.02774213503350078,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.9206096407846205,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3819194.9580952385,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5533133825282244,"overforecast_share":0.6190476190476191,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":740020.6154125299,"mean_absolute_error":2097492.489542275,"root_mean_squared_error":2535690.493140057,"median_absolute_error":2174769.424901191,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.034508404165250015,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.1138865638576545,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5518292.689,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6199019139156294,"overforecast_share":0.6,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-62390.33960649297,"mean_absolute_error":2057533.789182683,"root_mean_squared_error":2519810.9113017498,"median_absolute_error":2154895.1327705607,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.033553024003066464,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.1247597826792513,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5518292.689,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6271430485584591,"overforecast_share":0.45,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-5518292.689,"mean_absolute_error":5518292.689,"root_mean_squared_error":5817892.456756692,"median_absolute_error":4852912.544999994,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09072471749182788,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":3.023933593194099,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5518292.689,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":465894.20444264525,"mean_absolute_error":1893965.4792431747,"root_mean_squared_error":2417115.808031218,"median_absolute_error":1348070.4546515532,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.03134598534939917,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.0048461082411801,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5518292.689,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6567841566253727,"overforecast_share":0.6,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1018743.2061287984,"mean_absolute_error":2364198.4466027217,"root_mean_squared_error":2811217.1577446074,"median_absolute_error":2495273.129068408,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.038717390530166,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.2573600519448749,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5518292.689,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5715706687114578,"overforecast_share":0.65,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":19,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1443416.9375502483,"mean_absolute_error":2776945.224712443,"root_mean_squared_error":3293984.2501513516,"median_absolute_error":2566407.2993982285,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.0456279165946871,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.4510784970907145,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":7138482.74,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6109894320886957,"overforecast_share":0.6842105263157895,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":19,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":175273.82457370742,"mean_absolute_error":2407858.9218580537,"root_mean_squared_error":2936790.208065937,"median_absolute_error":2351313.7880000025,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.03872706047110318,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.3072125343717707,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":7138482.74,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6626931787106831,"overforecast_share":0.5263157894736842,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":19,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-7138482.74,"mean_absolute_error":7138482.74,"root_mean_squared_error":7401619.436125802,"median_absolute_error":6223065.480000004,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.11557775297256623,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":3.8913696029261526,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":7138482.74,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":19,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1046066.7487990573,"mean_absolute_error":2445489.877871445,"root_mean_squared_error":3120834.731286772,"median_absolute_error":1907862.7334038615,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.04069030443095064,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.2721947204476212,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":7138482.74,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6574216164776432,"overforecast_share":0.631578947368421,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":19,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1850807.0480759423,"mean_absolute_error":3140238.0914354636,"root_mean_squared_error":3710475.1950590485,"median_absolute_error":3015169.72218664,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.051043632796157326,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.64747612589437,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":7138482.74,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5600972635488275,"overforecast_share":0.7368421052631579,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":18,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":2366982.9556160667,"mean_absolute_error":3560781.649082471,"root_mean_squared_error":4261345.089536919,"median_absolute_error":2803439.374422867,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05784079202284426,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.8312857691774422,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":8694448.823888889,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5904534351506148,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":18,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":522733.1626055816,"mean_absolute_error":2829830.0378504083,"root_mean_squared_error":3350963.612539285,"median_absolute_error":3273877.0492424257,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.044693816958835536,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.518583093473414,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":8694448.823888889,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6745245046385044,"overforecast_share":0.6111111111111112,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":18,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-8694448.823888889,"mean_absolute_error":8694448.823888889,"root_mean_squared_error":8916553.980978295,"median_absolute_error":7863930.979999997,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.1386406296905106,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.711911954311745,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":8694448.823888889,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":18,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1800259.5439612952,"mean_absolute_error":3146240.8310034545,"root_mean_squared_error":4108764.7552744895,"median_absolute_error":2068876.0038601272,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.051678323221744094,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.6089642530539838,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":8694448.823888889,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.6381322272714016,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":18,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":2951873.142963182,"mean_absolute_error":3992520.7381415865,"root_mean_squared_error":4759839.536595918,"median_absolute_error":4303843.602392174,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.06427766896464567,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.06253439296962,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":8694448.823888889,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.5407965681307219,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.0343077814119128,"mean_absolute_error":0.16954791407592587,"root_mean_squared_error":0.4691386994138214,"median_absolute_error":0.06881366657477872,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09305719294035218,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.2871355893849687,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.16472175044295376,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.029298885059162227,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.008405686608814208,"mean_absolute_error":0.3892392911182951,"root_mean_squared_error":0.6578928079337085,"median_absolute_error":0.1549161049974941,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.20718894550167832,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.362071765567278,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.16472175044295376,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-1.3630108960813647,"overforecast_share":0.375,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.009998281339844631,"mean_absolute_error":0.16472175044295376,"root_mean_squared_error":0.43831759348843613,"median_absolute_error":0.06610424734352804,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.08288250332339143,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.4432778291766226,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.16472175044295376,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.041666666666666664,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.045911772175040826,"mean_absolute_error":0.16796025429540143,"root_mean_squared_error":0.47155384138635076,"median_absolute_error":0.03363249493677756,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09256942129630034,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.2687817300492803,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.16472175044295376,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.019660450691781683,"overforecast_share":0.4166666666666667,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.02270379064878486,"mean_absolute_error":0.17973996013870122,"root_mean_squared_error":0.4712251188867723,"median_absolute_error":0.09284995282984498,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09761574346602886,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.3526270121360338,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.16472175044295376,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.0911732036319548,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":23,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.08153467246515997,"mean_absolute_error":0.35319286897275143,"root_mean_squared_error":0.7184643297183038,"median_absolute_error":0.1363270638181966,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.19143023948266552,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.7015097311685294,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.3218533492773497,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.09737204775332509,"overforecast_share":0.30434782608695654,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":23,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.016869695428807886,"mean_absolute_error":0.5713287482513326,"root_mean_squared_error":0.8763534540518532,"median_absolute_error":0.232609024651953,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.3009626623213734,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":3.7840424091028497,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.3218533492773497,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.7751213387529587,"overforecast_share":0.30434782608695654,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":23,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.030607636538831213,"mean_absolute_error":0.3218533492773497,"root_mean_squared_error":0.624535722408282,"median_absolute_error":0.1145342830770415,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.1600482668715855,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.8416685878534453,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.3218533492773497,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.08695652173913043,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":23,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.1077628665449061,"mean_absolute_error":0.3498237501432576,"root_mean_squared_error":0.7293802704617156,"median_absolute_error":0.11847496236419408,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.19042908630830666,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.668777691241952,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.3218533492773497,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.08690417834305353,"overforecast_share":0.43478260869565216,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":23,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.05762459965779759,"mean_absolute_error":0.3694599464259474,"root_mean_squared_error":0.7183294276862345,"median_absolute_error":0.16956748524374454,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.19901691686207923,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.794676869574595,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.3218533492773497,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.14791394048092954,"overforecast_share":0.30434782608695654,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.14699761601834369,"mean_absolute_error":0.5444840912100753,"root_mean_squared_error":0.9482212696341816,"median_absolute_error":0.22039911855053085,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.29427614141150565,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.172049648350761,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.467805868403584,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.16391034825655448,"overforecast_share":0.2727272727272727,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.033344474299193766,"mean_absolute_error":0.7778335275876166,"root_mean_squared_error":1.0830448694057926,"median_absolute_error":0.4054717812834926,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.4053954518762467,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":5.328308276528227,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.467805868403584,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.6627271698023387,"overforecast_share":0.3181818181818182,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.06516685536931656,"mean_absolute_error":0.467805868403584,"root_mean_squared_error":0.7666490919013885,"median_absolute_error":0.17198442586777196,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.23110485805962655,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.149338893902443,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.467805868403584,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.13636363636363635,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.19188074335839672,"mean_absolute_error":0.5383436209736853,"root_mean_squared_error":0.9707754813405773,"median_absolute_error":0.17723916707714582,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.29204530250672595,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.141051365402478,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.467805868403584,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.15078424050304373,"overforecast_share":0.45454545454545453,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.10912521854477752,"mean_absolute_error":0.5694547856985505,"root_mean_squared_error":0.9426456789362815,"median_absolute_error":0.3961053039410153,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.3049368921374122,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.3131850245122045,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.467805868403584,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.2172886749835985,"overforecast_share":0.2727272727272727,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.2264019370971706,"mean_absolute_error":0.7559839438627721,"root_mean_squared_error":1.1702728618318723,"median_absolute_error":0.332651292369621,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.40571502301827633,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":5.886376244410738,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.6002487668774691,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.2594510569266921,"overforecast_share":0.2857142857142857,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.05453720036304449,"mean_absolute_error":0.9979771167860664,"root_mean_squared_error":1.286175930782457,"median_absolute_error":0.7184384304147693,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.5144364948585763,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":7.03633460531641,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.6002487668774691,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.662605859196687,"overforecast_share":0.3333333333333333,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.11041045274738122,"mean_absolute_error":0.6002487668774691,"root_mean_squared_error":0.8777472523746834,"median_absolute_error":0.2268361929254612,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.2954686358700687,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":5.407689546490765,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.6002487668774691,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.19047619047619047,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.29390072500819464,"mean_absolute_error":0.7447284390755633,"root_mean_squared_error":1.2084394492596011,"median_absolute_error":0.24290108808451238,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.40263986657838047,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":5.842397852446022,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.6002487668774691,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.24069965682676253,"overforecast_share":0.47619047619047616,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":21,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.17308722043802857,"mean_absolute_error":0.7818546110950676,"root_mean_squared_error":1.1548722667182378,"median_absolute_error":0.5354716522121048,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.415791098499517,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":6.0032000604338025,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.6002487668774691,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.30255096593088115,"overforecast_share":0.23809523809523808,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.32501496359726245,"mean_absolute_error":0.980635730235963,"root_mean_squared_error":1.381670709538898,"median_absolute_error":0.43989498161309126,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.5214403935686878,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":7.785969248345703,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.7095963863652173,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.3819626890422838,"overforecast_share":0.3,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.08478067483114834,"mean_absolute_error":1.2296662978259403,"root_mean_squared_error":1.4876741578595496,"median_absolute_error":1.3086650212639936,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.6277668070173161,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":8.859674073345053,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.7095963863652173,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.7329094700223739,"overforecast_share":0.35,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.17153083987950407,"mean_absolute_error":0.7095963863652173,"root_mean_squared_error":0.9591630018110953,"median_absolute_error":0.3043051609041988,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.34924260007941804,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":6.50817219465353,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.7095963863652173,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.41934212096022583,"mean_absolute_error":0.9667989384851818,"root_mean_squared_error":1.4353358317698284,"median_absolute_error":0.4312690487036188,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.5194147343290054,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":7.743378008526941,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.7095963863652173,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.3624631650640717,"overforecast_share":0.45,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":20,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2020,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.25468935009196114,"mean_absolute_error":1.0121746034240426,"root_mean_squared_error":1.3563285259192315,"median_absolute_error":0.6661781632451582,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.5318241184508693,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":7.9165765001753226,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":0.7095963863652173,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.42640890352997585,"overforecast_share":0.3,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":317348.32234934345,"mean_absolute_error":2854876.5920941792,"root_mean_squared_error":3755026.671513292,"median_absolute_error":2283566.8151285313,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.050660493208740366,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.6540416536108922,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3235288.25,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.11758199842187811,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-86915.5,"mean_absolute_error":2637071.3000000007,"root_mean_squared_error":3008239.895780922,"median_absolute_error":2550155.8000000007,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.046476617166398164,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.6224433704631032,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3235288.25,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.18490375625726685,"overforecast_share":0.5,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-1324665.75,"mean_absolute_error":3235288.25,"root_mean_squared_error":3550380.030775896,"median_absolute_error":2912777.5,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05709479523897906,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.0307680548603972,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3235288.25,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":382799.9298393857,"mean_absolute_error":2848498.076857941,"root_mean_squared_error":3799233.9067536257,"median_absolute_error":2219403.266172018,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05056706740741772,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.652508803984533,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3235288.25,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.11955354307056221,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":251896.7148592975,"mean_absolute_error":2861255.107330421,"root_mean_squared_error":3712525.5819186163,"median_absolute_error":2354003.8498887904,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.050753919010063084,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.6555745032372542,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3235288.25,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.1156104537731929,"overforecast_share":0.25,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":3,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1243232.4756838281,"mean_absolute_error":4301433.402870501,"root_mean_squared_error":4880412.525058149,"median_absolute_error":4587301.390780009,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.07484437094327949,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.711310334273538,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3489962.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.2325158276423931,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":3,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-351622.7380952363,"mean_absolute_error":3148975.8619047627,"root_mean_squared_error":3677666.1210004273,"median_absolute_error":3547225.4857142866,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.054379048449038125,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.1885852811860476,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3489962.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.09770482833200977,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":3,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-2278672.0,"mean_absolute_error":3489962.0,"root_mean_squared_error":4331914.201152419,"median_absolute_error":1816935.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.06020783914092775,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.664117719450098,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3489962.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.3333333333333333,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":3,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1328994.466835494,"mean_absolute_error":4383390.745693997,"root_mean_squared_error":4997205.165479982,"median_absolute_error":4581594.418287754,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.07628279867820337,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.7494299025121305,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3489962.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.2559995626582743,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":3,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2023,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":1157628.7108774509,"mean_absolute_error":4219634.086426564,"root_mean_squared_error":4765240.373668605,"median_absolute_error":4593008.063323669,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.07340871281574621,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.6732647217386982,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3489962.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.20907737288445083,"overforecast_share":0.6666666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":2,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":692200.7051899731,"mean_absolute_error":692200.7051899731,"root_mean_squared_error":707880.9937946585,"median_absolute_error":692200.7051899731,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.01230478935146797,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.5446166862073374,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3418008.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.7974841764004141,"overforecast_share":1.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":2,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-200962.8999999985,"mean_absolute_error":200962.8999999985,"root_mean_squared_error":242438.73243846372,"median_absolute_error":200962.8999999985,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.003629368162760202,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.16613978511857005,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3418008.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.9412046724290878,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":2,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-3418008.0,"mean_absolute_error":3418008.0,"root_mean_squared_error":3420244.033265609,"median_absolute_error":3418008.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.06095359868013396,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.7165660760588946,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3418008.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":2,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":700374.8121612184,"mean_absolute_error":700374.8121612184,"root_mean_squared_error":715753.5468012717,"median_absolute_error":700374.8121612184,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.012450842393366138,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.5511532363463618,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3418008.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.795092693708962,"overforecast_share":1.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":2,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":684027.3898336552,"mean_absolute_error":684027.3898336552,"root_mean_squared_error":700016.6019694412,"median_absolute_error":684027.3898336552,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.01215875047709021,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.5380807723521837,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":3418008.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.7998754274906158,"overforecast_share":1.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. 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Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":1,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-1247805.700000003,"mean_absolute_error":1247805.700000003,"root_mean_squared_error":1247805.700000003,"median_absolute_error":1247805.700000003,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.021868547565810314,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.0498121738281818,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5298663.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.7645055554580461,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":1,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-5298663.0,"mean_absolute_error":5298663.0,"root_mean_squared_error":5298663.0,"median_absolute_error":5298663.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09286226521540886,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.457906325009528,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5298663.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":1,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-106600.86020615697,"mean_absolute_error":106600.86020615697,"root_mean_squared_error":106600.86020615697,"median_absolute_error":106600.86020615697,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.001868244376487969,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.08968614327132782,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5298663.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.9798815549873323,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":4,"origin_count":1,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-130543.16896784306,"mean_absolute_error":130543.16896784306,"root_mean_squared_error":130543.16896784306,"median_absolute_error":130543.16896784306,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.0022878477794779123,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":0.10982944539566587,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":5298663.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.9753629983699957,"overforecast_share":0.0,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2026,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":48376.95532998966,"mean_absolute_error":304593.8141172558,"root_mean_squared_error":541323.7068048781,"median_absolute_error":184004.53039780864,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.057470997836516886,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.3521620224491298,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":295844.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.02957577005873291,"overforecast_share":0.5,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2026,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":121492.52228327226,"mean_absolute_error":475550.45506715507,"root_mean_squared_error":638853.7421899027,"median_absolute_error":316374.7000000002,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09385607882703319,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.9545239403079901,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":295844.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.6074365377264879,"overforecast_share":0.5,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2026,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":67342.61538461539,"mean_absolute_error":295844.0,"root_mean_squared_error":497338.61512083263,"median_absolute_error":209444.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05561789279352044,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.3438839912623242,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":295844.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.34615384615384615,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2026,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":33904.385430002425,"mean_absolute_error":329813.83339424833,"root_mean_squared_error":562377.5379369981,"median_absolute_error":231241.3914472377,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.062043477972908365,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.4428281176115099,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":295844.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.11482346572601898,"overforecast_share":0.5,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":1,"origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2026,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":62849.52522997689,"mean_absolute_error":288129.98689163476,"root_mean_squared_error":526169.4478072253,"median_absolute_error":155663.48422926292,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05495337958290677,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":1.2919908369827315,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":295844.0,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.026074597113226017,"overforecast_share":0.4230769230769231,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":25,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2025,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":118251.18133118277,"mean_absolute_error":538164.8903028411,"root_mean_squared_error":754899.5917655965,"median_absolute_error":351195.35809029825,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.10417315184958464,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.3971537451936764,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":495691.64,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.08568482273140843,"overforecast_share":0.44,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":25,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2025,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":210849.67311399712,"mean_absolute_error":592795.8034054833,"root_mean_squared_error":781027.2629471697,"median_absolute_error":488800.81212121155,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.11811743221734529,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.5611598006774274,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":495691.64,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.19589631046729616,"overforecast_share":0.6,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"naive_last_value","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":25,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2025,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":141207.96,"mean_absolute_error":495691.64,"root_mean_squared_error":670163.2521809891,"median_absolute_error":333539.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.0959921198582499,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.2980748340052877,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":495691.64,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.0,"overforecast_share":0.44,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"recent_mean_growth","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":25,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2025,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":87859.31530426496,"mean_absolute_error":592466.9734731507,"root_mean_squared_error":815802.0287121059,"median_absolute_error":460937.96725772973,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.11382943856556016,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.592087415596036,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":495691.64,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.19523293447747214,"overforecast_share":0.44,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":2,"origin_count":25,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2025,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":150003.90932792044,"mean_absolute_error":487129.09883894975,"root_mean_squared_error":708344.4503313388,"median_absolute_error":309266.7291021114,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.0950397454910942,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":2.22133227291968,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":495691.64,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.017273926913615623,"overforecast_share":0.48,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":233107.41139496816,"mean_absolute_error":730810.1605552206,"root_mean_squared_error":976489.0675497387,"median_absolute_error":479000.53201237787,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.1415164496518062,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":3.305064011245308,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":673089.875,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.08575420266902767,"overforecast_share":0.5416666666666666,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":3,"origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2024,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":332425.46782708034,"mean_absolute_error":686830.674597162,"root_mean_squared_error":881148.6282884933,"median_absolute_error":511650.5454545454,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.1364653668502991,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":3.0756412603456122,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":673089.875,"mae_skill_vs_naive":-0.020414509425152216,"overforecast_share":0.5833333333333334,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. 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Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","horizon_years":5,"origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_origin_period":2022,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":642656.2318019251,"mean_absolute_error":868877.8162270531,"root_mean_squared_error":1140874.8134305237,"median_absolute_error":768801.0774161937,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.17353802283840578,"mean_absolute_scaled_error":4.073466128877143,"naive_mean_absolute_error_same_origins":921673.1818181818,"mae_skill_vs_naive":0.057282089392011404,"overforecast_share":0.6363636363636364,"method_note":"Compare models only at the same metric and horizon on the same origins. Positive skill indicates smaller MAE than the no-change baseline. Small origin counts and overlapping forecast windows limit precision; model rankings are descriptive historical evaluations.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1}]