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Overlapping horizons are not independent trials."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","entity":"Point Pleasant Borough","period_kind":"calendar_year","unit":"USD","historical_scenario":"actual","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","horizon_years":5,"origin_period":2014,"target_period":2019,"training_first_period":2000,"training_period_count":15,"origin_value":60068928.39999999,"actual_value":67596482.03999999,"forecast_value":70313967.04164511,"signed_error":2717485.001645118,"absolute_error":2717485.001645118,"percentage_error":0.040201574396091434,"training_one_step_naive_mae":1858897.0071428567,"absolute_error_scaled_by_training_naive_mae":1.4618803468955601,"naive_forecast_value":60068928.39999999,"naive_absolute_error":7527553.640000001,"method_note":"Rolling origins train only on source year keys at or before the origin. This is retrospective using the current archive; publication lags and historical revisions are not reconstructed. State-aid targets are published allocations, not realized receipts. Growth models compound unchanged fitted growth over the horizon; the linear model uses the last ten observations. Targets require observed source year keys; gaps are not interpolated. Scaling uses training-only adjacent-year naive error. Overlapping horizons are not independent trials."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","entity":"Point Pleasant Borough","period_kind":"calendar_year","unit":"USD","historical_scenario":"actual","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","horizon_years":5,"origin_period":2014,"target_period":2019,"training_first_period":2000,"training_period_count":15,"origin_value":60068928.39999999,"actual_value":67596482.03999999,"forecast_value":69097075.33551514,"signed_error":1500593.2955151498,"absolute_error":1500593.2955151498,"percentage_error":0.022199280942271207,"training_one_step_naive_mae":1858897.0071428567,"absolute_error_scaled_by_training_naive_mae":0.8072492933976889,"naive_forecast_value":60068928.39999999,"naive_absolute_error":7527553.640000001,"method_note":"Rolling origins train only on source year keys at or before the origin. This is retrospective using the current archive; publication lags and historical revisions are not reconstructed. State-aid targets are published allocations, not realized receipts. Growth models compound unchanged fitted growth over the horizon; the linear model uses the last ten observations. Targets require observed source year keys; gaps are not interpolated. Scaling uses training-only adjacent-year naive error. Overlapping horizons are not independent trials."}]