[{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.general_budget_total","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-54027.63842481724,"mean_absolute_error":708238.2483835511,"median_absolute_error":631474.7569523435,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.032567772192973125,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.002009467598850122,"overforecast_share":0.4375,"max_absolute_error":1453989.4738425426,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.general_budget_total","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-302607.1467847219,"mean_absolute_error":738267.4528462305,"median_absolute_error":709580.6713888869,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.03393029028575905,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.01166403177032731,"overforecast_share":0.375,"max_absolute_error":1731504.1600000001,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.general_budget_total","model":"naive_last_value","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-545045.024375,"mean_absolute_error":771233.5331250001,"median_absolute_error":722116.5,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.03515511151680034,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.024440730256220025,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":1988943.9800000004,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.general_budget_total","model":"recent_mean_growth","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-24805.17465743539,"mean_absolute_error":751437.9703523337,"median_absolute_error":631905.5379278939,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.03449791557534964,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0009409767045449238,"overforecast_share":0.4375,"max_absolute_error":1673497.3367977552,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.general_budget_total","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-83250.10219219956,"mean_absolute_error":691545.2665760701,"median_absolute_error":637315.6687669996,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.03178247776036104,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.003077958493155343,"overforecast_share":0.4375,"max_absolute_error":1345707.9776920453,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.local_municipal_tax","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-20437.18766682595,"mean_absolute_error":170316.68072334165,"median_absolute_error":153363.47345522977,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.011576139969894973,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0008147866748791212,"overforecast_share":0.5,"max_absolute_error":362704.6970776208,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.local_municipal_tax","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-47664.25272271794,"mean_absolute_error":276565.05119394895,"median_absolute_error":320629.16327777784,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.01798349205302191,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0018058503519202455,"overforecast_share":0.4375,"max_absolute_error":745485.6426666677,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.local_municipal_tax","model":"naive_last_value","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-382620.0318750001,"mean_absolute_error":382620.0318750001,"median_absolute_error":312909.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.025458849938719674,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.025458849938719674,"overforecast_share":0.0,"max_absolute_error":727964.6700000018,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.local_municipal_tax","model":"recent_mean_growth","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-30777.22350713378,"mean_absolute_error":154773.3791664017,"median_absolute_error":140665.84865196608,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.010572190808714493,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0016142363870598447,"overforecast_share":0.5,"max_absolute_error":344156.16375917196,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"municipal_budget.local_municipal_tax","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","origin_count":16,"first_origin_period":2010,"last_target_period":2026,"mean_signed_error":-10097.15182651754,"mean_absolute_error":186812.42002649687,"median_absolute_error":205298.92941633984,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.01264087342554113,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-1.5336962698364538e-05,"overforecast_share":0.4375,"max_absolute_error":381253.2303960696,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":23595.32788149064,"mean_absolute_error":809019.9647840987,"median_absolute_error":675427.7475977652,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.013093108307045897,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.0014906649244948759,"overforecast_share":0.5909090909090909,"max_absolute_error":2823248.1392600685,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-219199.64106926153,"mean_absolute_error":1167352.2057510815,"median_absolute_error":975098.75,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.019018357121371378,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0027321763353699915,"overforecast_share":0.45454545454545453,"max_absolute_error":5075306.143333331,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"naive_last_value","origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-1974767.7090909088,"mean_absolute_error":1974767.7090909088,"median_absolute_error":1666898.3450000025,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.0332609627806907,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0332609627806907,"overforecast_share":0.0,"max_absolute_error":5017664.539999992,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"recent_mean_growth","origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-49884.16822011498,"mean_absolute_error":760082.5474613052,"median_absolute_error":488924.5812718794,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.012257429564885352,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.00029843829525460006,"overforecast_share":0.6363636363636364,"max_absolute_error":2653527.2678587884,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_levy","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","origin_count":22,"first_origin_period":2003,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":97074.8239830966,"mean_absolute_error":879542.019687384,"median_absolute_error":849854.637144614,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.014301509400922884,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.00268289155373516,"overforecast_share":0.5909090909090909,"max_absolute_error":2992969.0106613785,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.0343077814119128,"mean_absolute_error":0.16954791407592587,"median_absolute_error":0.06881366657477872,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09305719294035218,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.026091716557273662,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":2.2448243545436526,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.008405686608814208,"mean_absolute_error":0.3892392911182951,"median_absolute_error":0.1549161049974941,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.20718894550167832,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.027396055250877138,"overforecast_share":0.375,"max_absolute_error":2.275061201298927,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"naive_last_value","origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.009998281339844631,"mean_absolute_error":0.16472175044295376,"median_absolute_error":0.06610424734352804,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.08288250332339143,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.0234169488724764,"overforecast_share":0.041666666666666664,"max_absolute_error":2.0966403813935806,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"recent_mean_growth","origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.045911772175040826,"mean_absolute_error":0.16796025429540143,"median_absolute_error":0.03363249493677756,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09256942129630034,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.03067392763557701,"overforecast_share":0.4166666666666667,"max_absolute_error":2.2397761633415434,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","origin_count":24,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":0.02270379064878486,"mean_absolute_error":0.17973996013870122,"median_absolute_error":0.09284995282984498,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09761574346602886,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.02150950547897033,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":2.2498725457457613,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":317348.32234934345,"mean_absolute_error":2854876.5920941792,"median_absolute_error":2283566.8151285313,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.050660493208740366,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.006958634099623868,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":6344449.828887045,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-86915.5,"mean_absolute_error":2637071.3000000007,"median_absolute_error":2550155.8000000007,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.046476617166398164,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.0006275318050880489,"overforecast_share":0.5,"max_absolute_error":4462595.1000000015,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"naive_last_value","origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":-1324665.75,"mean_absolute_error":3235288.25,"median_absolute_error":2912777.5,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05709479523897906,"mean_signed_percentage_error":-0.022390950450269606,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":5358598.0,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"recent_mean_growth","origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":382799.9298393857,"mean_absolute_error":2848498.076857941,"median_absolute_error":2219403.266172018,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05056706740741772,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.008125041834722102,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":6462596.013394654,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","origin_count":4,"first_origin_period":2021,"last_target_period":2025,"mean_signed_error":251896.7148592975,"mean_absolute_error":2861255.107330421,"median_absolute_error":2354003.8498887904,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.050753919010063084,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.0057922263645255765,"overforecast_share":0.25,"max_absolute_error":6226303.644379437,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":48376.95532998966,"mean_absolute_error":304593.8141172558,"median_absolute_error":184004.53039780864,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.057470997836516886,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.008601398347915044,"overforecast_share":0.5,"max_absolute_error":2386855.638585368,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":3},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"linear_trend_10_period_window","origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":121492.52228327226,"mean_absolute_error":475550.45506715507,"median_absolute_error":316374.7000000002,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.09385607882703319,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.02635328026341127,"overforecast_share":0.5,"max_absolute_error":1701237.1333333338,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":5},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"naive_last_value","origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":67342.61538461539,"mean_absolute_error":295844.0,"median_absolute_error":209444.0,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05561789279352044,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.01717487967939809,"overforecast_share":0.34615384615384615,"max_absolute_error":2017005.0,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":2},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"recent_mean_growth","origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":33904.385430002425,"mean_absolute_error":329813.83339424833,"median_absolute_error":231241.3914472377,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.062043477972908365,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.0049556004802765626,"overforecast_share":0.5,"max_absolute_error":2482997.500281905,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":4},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","model":"trailing_cagr_or_mean","origin_count":26,"first_origin_period":2001,"last_target_period":2027,"mean_signed_error":62849.52522997689,"mean_absolute_error":288129.98689163476,"median_absolute_error":155663.48422926292,"mean_absolute_percentage_error":0.05495337958290677,"mean_signed_percentage_error":0.012247196215553523,"overforecast_share":0.4230769230769231,"max_absolute_error":2290713.7768888334,"notes":"Rolling-origin one-step comparison on identical observations. Rankings summarize held-out historical errors; selecting a model from these rankings still requires an independent future test.","model_rank_by_mean_absolute_error":1}]