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It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2005,"target_period":2006,"actual_value":3.399400518033626,"forecast_value":3.3586533017160085,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.040747216317617685,"absolute_error":0.040747216317617685,"percentage_error":-0.011986588841607814,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.04866482169198777,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.03755536338037868,"base_growth_rate":0.043110092536183225,"growth_volatility":0.01797194352742809,"training_period_count":8,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. 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It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2008,"target_period":2009,"actual_value":3.740299197817756,"forecast_value":3.8252183082865505,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":0.0849191104687943,"absolute_error":0.0849191104687943,"percentage_error":0.02270382821736282,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.04892149719552985,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.04058111754190885,"base_growth_rate":0.04475130736871935,"growth_volatility":0.017148795715362937,"training_period_count":11,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. 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It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2012,"target_period":2013,"actual_value":1.8001786734746044,"forecast_value":1.6048353050844064,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.19534336839019795,"absolute_error":0.19534336839019795,"percentage_error":-0.10851332218771212,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.11787634738832453,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.05475440754721561,"base_growth_rate":-0.08631537746777007,"growth_volatility":0.20076606608384603,"training_period_count":15,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2013,"target_period":2014,"actual_value":1.8704950093496369,"forecast_value":1.6443706891881447,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.2261243201614922,"absolute_error":0.2261243201614922,"percentage_error":-0.12089009541924127,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.11704087535514751,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.05606192447496916,"base_growth_rate":-0.08655139991505834,"growth_volatility":0.20029763680660517,"training_period_count":16,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2014,"target_period":2015,"actual_value":1.9147129565516459,"forecast_value":1.8464590538193375,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.06825390273230836,"absolute_error":0.06825390273230836,"percentage_error":-0.03564706787968473,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.032862860195513266,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.0585629614095301,"base_growth_rate":-0.012850050607008418,"growth_volatility":0.19902606112900895,"training_period_count":17,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2015,"target_period":2016,"actual_value":1.937680806700413,"forecast_value":1.8837881096538425,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.053892697046570515,"absolute_error":0.053892697046570515,"percentage_error":-0.027812990075667773,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.029487470738384702,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.06178980283676705,"base_growth_rate":-0.016151166049191173,"growth_volatility":0.1975648113753025,"training_period_count":18,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2016,"target_period":2017,"actual_value":1.9521542400811016,"forecast_value":1.8983231926551258,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.053831047425975775,"absolute_error":0.053831047425975775,"percentage_error":-0.027575201959318226,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.024898957019883983,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.06552238055712545,"base_growth_rate":-0.020311711768620733,"growth_volatility":0.19599687276614555,"training_period_count":19,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2017,"target_period":2018,"actual_value":1.9960920629404237,"forecast_value":1.9063262493613846,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.08976581357903912,"absolute_error":0.08976581357903912,"percentage_error":-0.044970778275029044,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.02054134317694556,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.06749254178491315,"base_growth_rate":-0.023475599303983796,"growth_volatility":0.1952988677741899,"training_period_count":20,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2018,"target_period":2019,"actual_value":2.0579842217524473,"forecast_value":1.945198398935817,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.1127858228166303,"absolute_error":0.1127858228166303,"percentage_error":-0.05480402698160102,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.016402992766942126,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.06739629608145536,"base_growth_rate":-0.02549665165725662,"growth_volatility":0.19533682342052355,"training_period_count":21,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2019,"target_period":2020,"actual_value":2.0858888116546277,"forecast_value":2.1027837837598913,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":0.016894972105263584,"absolute_error":0.016894972105263584,"percentage_error":0.008099651338491852,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.01824473328460896,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.025292589824016165,"base_growth_rate":0.021768661554312563,"growth_volatility":0.010566910212471225,"training_period_count":22,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2020,"target_period":2021,"actual_value":2.107848175840847,"forecast_value":2.128974307755702,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":0.02112613191485524,"absolute_error":0.02112613191485524,"percentage_error":0.01002260606669537,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.018635666306147103,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.02267573616203844,"base_growth_rate":0.02065570123409277,"growth_volatility":0.010192257400580818,"training_period_count":23,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2021,"target_period":2022,"actual_value":2.1407388139736874,"forecast_value":2.149869160377937,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":0.00913034640424959,"absolute_error":0.00913034640424959,"percentage_error":0.00426504454660755,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.019400196118502466,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.020470782274262467,"base_growth_rate":0.019935489196382467,"growth_volatility":0.010475455099169563,"training_period_count":24,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2022,"target_period":2023,"actual_value":2.185933446831797,"forecast_value":2.180462915911151,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.005470530920645977,"absolute_error":0.005470530920645977,"percentage_error":-0.002502606348136876,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.01767433142777408,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.019438184754176246,"base_growth_rate":0.018556258090975164,"growth_volatility":0.010447698023841085,"training_period_count":25,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2023,"target_period":2024,"actual_value":2.2860283960957557,"forecast_value":2.221637292623509,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.06439110347224686,"absolute_error":0.06439110347224686,"percentage_error":-0.028167236934684904,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.01520058974172428,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.017466320445737926,"base_growth_rate":0.016333455093731103,"growth_volatility":0.007557238269521942,"training_period_count":26,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"property_tax.total_rate","scenario":"base","origin_period":2024,"target_period":2025,"actual_value":2.423444993335555,"forecast_value":2.335347032551205,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-0.08809796078435017,"absolute_error":0.08809796078435017,"percentage_error":-0.036352366580062065,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.023258414212693312,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.019889463162477528,"base_growth_rate":0.02157393868758542,"growth_volatility":0.012069702448612343,"training_period_count":27,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","scenario":"base","origin_period":2021,"target_period":2022,"actual_value":53517714.0,"forecast_value":53009791.09076739,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-507922.909232609,"absolute_error":507922.909232609,"percentage_error":-0.009490743742017997,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.02418558729115383,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.024077931282697085,"base_growth_rate":0.024131759286925458,"growth_volatility":0.018160587498843105,"training_period_count":4,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","scenario":"base","origin_period":2022,"target_period":2023,"actual_value":58876312.0,"forecast_value":54940244.488380834,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-3936067.5116191655,"absolute_error":3936067.5116191655,"percentage_error":-0.06685316008956481,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.026625356250390697,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.02653575180369505,"base_growth_rate":0.026580554027042874,"growth_volatility":0.015610290916568915,"training_period_count":5,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","scenario":"base","origin_period":2023,"target_period":2024,"actual_value":55055067.0,"forecast_value":61399516.828887045,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":6344449.828887045,"absolute_error":6344449.828887045,"percentage_error":0.11523825461672847,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.04486271173701656,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.04084934267587004,"base_growth_rate":0.0428560272064433,"growth_volatility":0.035542588712439205,"training_period_count":6,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_acfr.total_revenues","scenario":"base","origin_period":2024,"target_period":2025,"actual_value":57059377.0,"forecast_value":56428310.8813621,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-631066.1186378971,"absolute_error":631066.1186378971,"percentage_error":-0.011059814386650192,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.027458330734697417,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.02242786344111214,"base_growth_rate":0.024943097087904778,"growth_volatility":0.05377153013790093,"training_period_count":7,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2001,"target_period":2002,"actual_value":5680193.0,"forecast_value":6078619.808582872,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":398426.80858287215,"absolute_error":398426.80858287215,"percentage_error":0.07014318150507776,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.03333076295462104,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.03216711758861712,"base_growth_rate":0.03274894027161908,"growth_volatility":0.06071406386668359,"training_period_count":4,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2002,"target_period":2003,"actual_value":5766580.0,"forecast_value":5768879.237186386,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":2299.23718638625,"absolute_error":2299.23718638625,"percentage_error":0.00039871764310670275,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.016262268942223823,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.014964218321989353,"base_growth_rate":0.015613243632106588,"growth_volatility":0.060189691688390036,"training_period_count":5,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2003,"target_period":2004,"actual_value":5981538.0,"forecast_value":5793185.263303763,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-188352.73669623677,"absolute_error":188352.73669623677,"percentage_error":-0.031489014480261895,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.005785664750663111,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.01501306237759703,"base_growth_rate":0.00461369881346696,"growth_volatility":0.05212793244438963,"training_period_count":6,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2004,"target_period":2005,"actual_value":6160984.0,"forecast_value":6050755.010766016,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-110228.98923398368,"absolute_error":110228.98923398368,"percentage_error":-0.017891458447868665,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.004453376166131673,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.01869017345806756,"base_growth_rate":0.011571774812099617,"growth_volatility":0.047422996062796784,"training_period_count":7,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2005,"target_period":2006,"actual_value":6160984.0,"forecast_value":6260125.504992836,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":99141.50499283615,"absolute_error":99141.50499283615,"percentage_error":0.016091829648127012,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.01188543489720123,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.0202982243990526,"base_growth_rate":0.016091829648126915,"growth_volatility":0.043469542968437344,"training_period_count":8,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2006,"target_period":2007,"actual_value":6160984.0,"forecast_value":6279151.124717592,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":118167.12471759226,"absolute_error":118167.12471759226,"percentage_error":0.019179910987853932,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.02062123817094319,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.017738583804764785,"base_growth_rate":0.019179910987853988,"growth_volatility":0.04092901649249328,"training_period_count":9,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2007,"target_period":2008,"actual_value":6440976.0,"forecast_value":6261319.6759006195,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-179656.32409938052,"absolute_error":179656.32409938052,"percentage_error":-0.027892717516627995,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.016819122644234852,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.01575219255496685,"base_growth_rate":0.01628565759960085,"growth_volatility":0.03877595955357407,"training_period_count":10,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2008,"target_period":2009,"actual_value":6808953.0,"forecast_value":6532897.418580258,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-276055.58141974173,"absolute_error":276055.58141974173,"percentage_error":-0.04054302936438858,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.018861490948523907,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.009681207729520747,"base_growth_rate":0.014271349339022327,"growth_volatility":0.02482236385017843,"training_period_count":11,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2009,"target_period":2010,"actual_value":6923183.0,"forecast_value":6951919.772296686,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":28736.772296685725,"absolute_error":28736.772296685725,"percentage_error":0.00415080350998749,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.02564415365186684,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.016349607296897162,"base_growth_rate":0.020996880474382,"growth_volatility":0.028631631615322447,"training_period_count":12,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2010,"target_period":2011,"actual_value":7759872.0,"forecast_value":7089469.82103674,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-670402.1789632598,"absolute_error":670402.1789632598,"percentage_error":-0.0863934584182909,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":0.02983826396515582,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":0.01819941495702193,"base_growth_rate":0.024018839461088876,"growth_volatility":0.02796802442813943,"training_period_count":13,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. 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It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2020,"target_period":2021,"actual_value":5004221.0,"forecast_value":5317887.934749339,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":313666.9347493388,"absolute_error":313666.9347493388,"percentage_error":0.06268047209532489,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.023486035706125785,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.037797035234677145,"base_growth_rate":-0.030641535470401465,"growth_volatility":0.0887296262773314,"training_period_count":23,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2021,"target_period":2022,"actual_value":4363330.0,"forecast_value":4849752.184203146,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":486422.184203146,"absolute_error":486422.184203146,"percentage_error":0.11147957734188017,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.046554397542367815,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.015181011743854445,"base_growth_rate":-0.03086770464311113,"growth_volatility":0.03778905494513631,"training_period_count":24,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2022,"target_period":2023,"actual_value":3822214.0,"forecast_value":4126625.5140441977,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":304411.51404419774,"absolute_error":304411.51404419774,"percentage_error":0.07964271860345803,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.07451277042576773,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.033984403043028966,"base_growth_rate":-0.05424858673439835,"growth_volatility":0.048239675969570385,"training_period_count":25,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2023,"target_period":2024,"actual_value":3567363.0,"forecast_value":3540108.719839074,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-27254.280160925817,"absolute_error":27254.280160925817,"percentage_error":-0.007639895396382655,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.09905375799607208,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.04855978753587675,"base_growth_rate":-0.07380677276597442,"growth_volatility":0.054425043944179324,"training_period_count":26,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2024,"target_period":2025,"actual_value":3680096.0,"forecast_value":3284719.705041598,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-395376.29495840194,"absolute_error":395376.29495840194,"percentage_error":-0.10743640789762059,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.10164459464946282,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.05681603577048733,"base_growth_rate":-0.07923031520997507,"growth_volatility":0.0502819455188701,"training_period_count":27,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2025,"target_period":2026,"actual_value":3900902.0,"forecast_value":3449464.761925937,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-451437.23807406286,"absolute_error":451437.23807406286,"percentage_error":-0.11572637253488113,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.07178990091976212,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.05354989351715622,"base_growth_rate":-0.06266989721845917,"growth_volatility":0.05548511599941347,"training_period_count":28,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."},{"metric_id":"school_state_aid.k12_total_aid","scenario":"base","origin_period":2026,"target_period":2027,"actual_value":4134956.0,"forecast_value":3759211.07020799,"signed_error_forecast_minus_actual":-375744.9297920102,"absolute_error":375744.9297920102,"percentage_error":-0.090870357457736,"recent_mean_yoy_growth":-0.024772363806906506,"ten_year_cagr_or_mean":-0.04787284993699692,"base_growth_rate":-0.03632260687195171,"growth_volatility":0.06485956856340229,"training_period_count":29,"model":"ensemble_recent_growth_and_10_year_cagr","notes":"Rolling-origin one-step backtest. It evaluates the existing base planning model against later observed annual values; it is not a probability-calibrated forecast interval."}]